HYT CARGO
August 3, 2026
The international container судноплавство market continues to undergo adjustments, with performance gaps among major trade lanes becoming increasingly pronounced.
Freight rates on routes to Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America have continued to retreat from recent highs, while rates to the Persian Gulf have risen significantly. Meanwhile, vessel traffic through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz remains low. Uncertainties related to rerouting, insurance premiums, fuel costs, and regional surcharges have yet to ease. Following the implementation of new U.S. tariffs, changes in importers’ purchasing and inventory strategies may also introduce additional variables into demand on U.S.-bound routes.
A decline in composite freight indices, therefore, does not necessarily mean that transportation costs and capacity availability are improving across all routes. The market is shifting away from the broad-based increases seen earlier toward increasingly route-specific conditions.
- SCFI Continues to Decline as Major Trade Lanes Move in Different Directions
As of July 24, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 3,062.95 points, down 17.36 points from the previous week, representing a week-on-week decrease of approximately 0.6%.
Freight rates on major routes were as follows:
Shanghai to major European ports: USD 3,155 per TEU, down approximately 1.9%
Shanghai to major Mediterranean ports: USD 4,351 per TEU, down approximately 2.8%
Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast: USD 5,535 per FEU, down approximately 3.3%
Shanghai to the U.S. East Coast: USD 8,040 per FEU, down approximately 1.6%
Shanghai to major Persian Gulf ports: USD 4,584 per TEU, up approximately 7.5%
The data show that rates on European, Mediterranean, and North American routes continued to decline, with the U.S. West Coast recording a relatively notable drop. By contrast, Persian Gulf rates moved sharply higher amid regional risks, changes in shipping arrangements, and rising overall transportation costs, making it one of the strongest-performing routes of the week.
Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) reflected a similar trend. As of July 23, the WCI had fallen 4% week on week to USD 4,374 per 40-foot container, marking its second consecutive weekly decline. Spot rates on both trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes decreased to varying degrees.
This indicates that the earlier wave of front-loaded shipments is gradually being absorbed, while additional capacity on some routes is beginning to ease supply-demand pressure. - Traffic Through Key Straits Remains Low as Regional Risks Persist
According to Kpler vessel-tracking data, only 11 bulk commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 26, one of the lowest daily figures recorded in recent months. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was also subdued, with only three bulk commodity vessels observed passing through on July 25.
Although these figures primarily cover bulk commodity vessels, the decline in vessel traffic reflects broader security risks that may also affect the container shipping market through several channels, including:
Longer sailing distances caused by vessel rerouting
Higher fuel consumption and related operating costs
Increased war-risk and other insurance premiums
Temporary service adjustments by shipping lines
Changes to transshipment ports and sailing schedules
International oil prices fell noticeably on July 27 following reports that the United States and Iran had suspended reciprocal strikes. However, a short-term decline in oil prices does not mean that normal shipping conditions have been restored. Actual vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz remains low, while regional developments and future shipping arrangements remain highly uncertain. - Freight Rates Enter a Correction Phase Rather Than a Broad Downturn
International container spot rates have now declined for two consecutive weeks. At this stage, however, the movement appears more consistent with a correction following the previous rapid increase than the beginning of a broad market downturn.
3.1 European and U.S. Routes Gradually Absorb Earlier Price Increases
The surge in booking demand caused by front-loaded shipments is gradually subsiding, easing capacity pressure on European and U.S. routes. At the same time, some shipping lines have added capacity, resulting in a more balanced supply-demand environment.
Drewry data show that spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles, New York, Rotterdam, and Genoa have all declined, mainly due to softer demand and increased market capacity.
The current adjustment remains gradual, however, with no clear evidence of a sudden or substantial contraction in demand. For popular sailings, specialized container types, and ports experiencing concentrated cargo volumes, actual quoted rates may fall by less than the headline indices suggest.
3.2 Individual Routes Are Developing Distinct Market Trends
While freight rates to Europe and North America are declining, routes associated with the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea continue to face pressure from security risks, fuel costs, insurance premiums, and regional surcharges.
The weekly rate from Shanghai to major Persian Gulf ports rose by approximately 7.5%, moving in the opposite direction from rates to Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America. This divergence demonstrates that the current market can no longer be accurately described as either rising or falling across the board.
Rates on individual trade lanes will increasingly depend on local cargo volumes, deployed capacity, port operations, maritime security, and changes in surcharges. Composite indicators such as the SCFI and WCI remain useful for assessing overall market direction, but they cannot replace actual quotations for specific routes, sailing dates, and container types.
3.3 Route Divergence Is Likely to Continue in the Short Term
Based on current conditions:
European and Mediterranean routes: Rates may decline slightly further, although additional blank sailings could limit the extent of the decrease.
U.S. West Coast and East Coast routes: As front-loaded demand is gradually absorbed, rates may stabilize or continue to adjust moderately.
Persian Gulf and Red Sea routes: Base freight rates, fuel costs, and regional surcharges remain exposed to further increases.
Other regional routes: Market direction will depend more heavily on local cargo volumes, port efficiency, and shipping lines’ capacity deployment.
Drewry expects trans-Pacific freight rates to remain relatively stable in the short term, while Asia-Europe rates may continue to edge lower. Nevertheless, developments in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, along with emergency fuel surcharges that shipping lines plan to introduce from August, could still alter the market outlook.
For cargo with firm delivery deadlines, shippers should prioritize securing suitable sailings and confirmed capacity. For shipments with greater scheduling flexibility, obtaining quotations and making bookings in stages may help reduce the risks associated with committing all cargo at a single price point. - New U.S. Tariffs Add Further Uncertainty to U.S.-Bound Trade
On July 24, the United States began imposing new tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on designated goods from 60 trading partners, including the European Union, China, and other major trading economies. The policy also provides exemptions for several product categories, including certain energy products, fertilizers, food products, and goods already subject to other tariff measures.
Tariff policies do not generally determine ocean freight rates on a specific route directly. They can, however, change importers’ purchasing plans, inventory cycles, and cargo arrival schedules, thereby affecting shipment volumes on U.S.-bound routes at different stages.
The future direction of U.S.-bound freight rates will therefore depend not only on shipping lines’ capacity deployment and blank-sailing programs, but also on the impact of tariff policies on actual cargo volumes. Businesses shipping affected products should verify the following before arranging transportation:
Product classification and HS codes
Applicable tariff rates
Eligibility for product exemptions
Estimated arrival dates
Customs declaration timelines
The relationship among ocean freight, tariff, and inventory costs
When tariff policies and freight rates are changing simultaneously, comparing base ocean freight rates alone may not provide an accurate picture of total logistics costs. - Market Outlook: Lower Indices Do Not Mean Capacity Is Easing Across the Board
The international container shipping market is moving away from broad-based rate increases and toward more pronounced structural divergence.
Freight rates on major European and North American routes have entered a period of correction as earlier front-loaded demand is gradually absorbed. By contrast, routes linked to the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea continue to face upward cost pressure from security risks, fuel prices, insurance premiums, and surcharge adjustments.
Shipping lines may also continue using blank sailings, service suspensions, and capacity reallocations to manage market supply. As a result, a decline in composite indices does not necessarily mean that rates will fall simultaneously across all routes, sailing dates, ports, and container types.
Companies may use indicators such as the SCFI and WCI to assess the general direction of the market. Final shipping decisions, however, should be based on a broader evaluation of cargo delivery requirements, actual capacity availability, quotation validity periods, applicable surcharges, transportation routes, port operating conditions, and relevant policy implementation dates.