HYT CARGO
July 24, 2026
“Our cargo is shipped to Europe, North America, or Southeast Asia and does not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Why are our ocean freight costs still rising?”
Recently, many exporters have noticed that expedição lines are adjusting their rates more frequently. Quotation validity periods have shortened from several weeks to just a few days, while some sailings have been delayed, ports have been skipped, and schedules have been changed at short notice.
At first glance, these changes may appear unrelated to Middle East shipping routes. However, global shipping does not consist of independent trade lanes. It operates as an interconnected capacity network.
When navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz change, energy transportation is affected first. The impact may then spread to other trade lanes through oil prices, insurance costs, vessel deployment, and market expectations.
Although vessel traffic has recently shown signs of improvement, regional security risks have not been fully eliminated, and uncertainty remains around fuel prices and insurance costs. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index, or SCFI, reached 3,239.64 points as of June 26, up 117.95 points from the previous period and marking its ninth consecutive weekly increase. The global container shipping market remains at a high and volatile level.
01 Why Can One Strait Affect the Global Shipping Market?
The Strait of Hormuz lies between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and connects to major international shipping routes through the Arabian Sea. It is one of the world’s most important corridors for transporting crude oil and liquefied natural gas.
According to relevant data from the International Energy Agency, approximately one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025. More than 110 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas were transported through the strait, accounting for around one-fifth of global LNG trade.
As a result, energy markets are usually the first to react when navigation conditions in the strait change. However, the impact does not necessarily remain limited to crude oil and natural gas. It may continue to spread through the following chain:
Higher navigation risks → Changes in energy supply expectations → Volatility in oil and marine fuel prices → Higher vessel operating costs → Adjustments to freight rates and surcharges
Port equipment, cargo collection and distribution vehicles, and certain warehousing operations also depend on energy. When fuel prices rise, the resulting costs may be passed on to terminal handling, inland transportation, and final-mile delivery.
Therefore, even cargo that does not pass through the Middle East may still be indirectly affected.
02 How Does Risk Feed Through to Ocean Freight Rates?
① Volatility in Marine Fuel Prices
Fuel is one of the major operating costs for vessels. When the stability of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz comes under scrutiny, the market reassesses oil supply and the outlook for energy prices.
Even if traffic is not completely disrupted, crude oil and marine fuel prices may remain volatile as long as uncertainty persists. Shipping lines may then adjust freight quotations and surcharges in response to changing costs.
For exporters, this impact may not appear as a separate “Strait of Hormuz surcharge.” More commonly, it is reflected in:
- Faster updates to spot freight rates;
- Significantly shorter quotation validity periods;
- Recalculation of bunker surcharges based on market conditions;
- Differences between the rate quoted at booking and the rate applied at departure;
- The need to reconfirm charges shortly before shipment.
During periods of market volatility, evaluating total transportation costs based only on the lowest rate available on a particular day may not accurately reflect the final expense.
② Insurance Costs and Regional Risk Premiums
When maritime security risks increase, shipowners, carriers, and insurers generally reassess the risks faced by vessels, cargo, and crews.
Even after some sailings resume, insurance rates and risk premiums may not fall immediately. Insurers need to continue monitoring navigation conditions, the probability of vessel losses, and developments in regional security. Adjustments to related costs therefore tend to lag behind changes in actual traffic.
These costs may not appear as separate items in a quotation. Instead, they may be incorporated into:
- The shipping line’s overall freight rate;
- War-risk or special-region surcharges;
- Temporary risk surcharges;
- Route adjustment costs;
- The shipowner’s overall pricing strategy.
Cargo owners often see only a higher total quotation or a shorter validity period rather than a noticeable increase in one specific charge.
③ Schedule Adjustments and Global Capacity Reallocation
Shipping lines deploy vessels across different regions based on route profitability, security risks, and market demand. When uncertainty affects Middle East trade lanes, carriers may slow vessels, wait for suitable transit windows, change port rotation sequences, or redeploy capacity.
These changes can produce a series of knock-on effects:
- Longer vessel turnaround times;
- Disruption to existing schedules;
- Less predictable vessel arrivals at certain ports;
- Slower empty-container repositioning;
- Changes in available capacity on other trade lanes.
Consequently, routes serving Europe, North America, or Southeast Asia may still be indirectly affected by vessel redeployment, higher fuel costs, and changes in port operations, even if they do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
03 Major Trade Lanes Showed Diverging Trends in June
Freight-rate movements have varied across trade lanes since the beginning of June.
Middle East routes initially recorded relatively high rates, driven by concerns over regional risks. As navigation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed, some shipping lines began accepting Middle East cargo again, increasing available market capacity. By late June, rates on Persian Gulf routes had started to decline, with some of the risk premiums previously included in quotations gradually narrowing.
Meanwhile, trade lanes serving Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand continued to be influenced by peak-season demand, carrier rate increases, and port operating conditions.
According to SCFI data released on June 22:
- The US West Coast rate reached USD 5,683 per FEU, up 11.41% from the previous period;
- The US East Coast rate increased by 8.73%;
- Spot rates on European routes generally exceeded USD 5,000 per 40HC due to peak-season demand, port congestion, and carrier rate increases;
- The Australia and New Zealand rate reached USD 1,808 per TEU, rising 4.15% in a single week.
These figures show that the Strait of Hormuz is not the only factor driving global freight rates higher. Each trade lane is also affected by local demand, port efficiency, capacity deployment, and shipping-line pricing strategies.
04 The Ocean Freight Market May Remain Divided in July
The gradual restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz may help ease pressure on Middle East trade lanes, but it does not mean global freight rates will decline at the same time.
Based on current conditions, different trade lanes may continue to follow their own market dynamics.
Middle East Routes
As navigation conditions improve and capacity returns, the elevated risk premiums seen earlier may continue to decline, leaving room for rates on some routes to retreat from their recent highs. However, insurance costs, fuel prices, and regional security conditions still require close attention.
North American Routes
Early shipments, peak-season demand, General Rate Increase adjustments, and fuel costs may continue to support freight rates. If cargo volumes are released into the market within a short period, space and empty-container availability on popular sailings may become temporarily tight.
European Routes
In addition to transportation demand, some European ports continue to face congestion, reduced labor availability during the summer, and shortages of trucking capacity. Even when sufficient mainline ocean capacity is available, destination-port operations and inland delivery efficiency may still affect overall transit times.
Australia and New Zealand Routes
Rates on Australia and New Zealand services may be adjusted further due to the combined effects of the traditional peak shipping season, changes in capacity, and peak-season surcharges.
Overall, the ocean freight market may not experience a uniform increase or decline in the near term. Instead, rate differences are likely to persist between trade lanes, shipping lines, and individual sailings.
05 How Can Exporters Respond to Freight-Rate Volatility?
① Confirm Quotation Terms, Not Just the Price
When the market is highly volatile, exporters should verify:
- The quotation’s validity period;
- The corresponding shipping line and sailing;
- Whether bunker and peak-season surcharges are included;
- Whether additional origin-port or destination-port charges apply;
- Whether space has been confirmed;
- Whether the rate may be recalculated later.
A low quotation without a confirmed sailing and secured space may not be executable as planned. When comparing logistics options, exporters should evaluate price, transit time, and reliability together.
② Allow Additional Time for Critical Orders
Critical orders should not be scheduled solely by working backward from an ideal sailing date. Booking, trucking, container loading, customs declaration, transshipment, destination customs clearance, and final delivery may all be affected by changing market conditions.
Companies can build an appropriate time buffer into their original schedules based on customer deadlines and order priority, reducing the impact of schedule changes on delivery commitments.
③ Prepare Alternative Solutions for Important Cargo
For cargo with strict delivery deadlines, high value, or a direct impact on production schedules, companies can compare several options in advance, including:
- Different shipping lines and sailings;
- Direct and transshipment services;
- Alternative origin or destination ports;
- Combined ocean and rail transportation;
- Combined ocean and air transportation;
- Separate airfreight shipments for critical components.
Alternative solutions do not necessarily need to be used immediately, but their costs, transit times, and operating requirements should be confirmed in advance. Waiting until the original plan can no longer be executed usually results in higher costs.
④ Continue Monitoring Port and Destination Delivery Capacity
Rising global freight rates do not mean that all risks occur at sea. Destination-port congestion, terminal efficiency, trucking resources, and warehouse capacity can also affect final delivery times and total logistics costs.
When evaluating transportation solutions, companies should therefore consider both mainline transportation and post-arrival operations, including customs clearance, container pickup, and inland delivery.
HYT CARGO Global Logistics Services
HYT CARGO has extensive experience serving global manufacturers and international trading companies. Based on customers’ order cycles, delivery requirements, and destination conditions, we provide ocean, air, rail, and multimodal transportation solutions. We also help companies assess risks related to freight-rate volatility, capacity changes, and destination delivery.
Core Capacity Resources
HYT CARGO maintains long-term relationships with major shipping lines, airlines, and railway operators. Through contract space and diversified capacity resources, we strengthen space protection during peak seasons and periods of market volatility while providing relatively stable transportation arrangements for long-term shipping projects.
Digital Transportation Management
Supported by our independently developed digital system, we continuously track available space, vessel schedules, port congestion, and sailing changes. We issue alerts for developments that may affect delivery and adjust booking and shipping plans according to actual conditions.
Overseas Local Services
Through our overseas offices and local partner network, we coordinate destination customs clearance, warehousing, container pickup, inland transportation, and final-mile delivery, reducing information gaps between mainline transportation and destination fulfillment.
In the face of freight-rate adjustments, space shortages, route changes, and port congestion, HYT CARGO focuses not only on whether cargo can be shipped successfully. We also develop transportation solutions based on each order’s delivery schedule, cost requirements, and supply-chain risks, helping customers improve logistics efficiency, reduce the impact of disruptions on order fulfillment, and maintain stable cargo delivery.